There is widespread acknowledgement that hydrogen will play a pivotal role in decarbonising the economy. Volumes could reach 500-800 Mt H2 by mid-century. The world is moving.

Certain “downstream” hydrogen products are well suited to international trade; these represent c.50% of target H2 economy. For these products, there is particularly high confidence that hydrogen-solutions will be the leading clean solutions.

In target off-takers sectors – e.g., fertilizer, shipping, aviation, chemicals – early movers are already taking steps to consume clean hydrogen. At the same time, globally competitive suppliers – e.g., Chile, Australia, Saudi Arabia – are moving to meet these markets.

• Namibia is positioned to be able to achieve highly competitive green hydrogen production costs. – That value can be unlocked by exporting green ammonia at highly competitive prices: ~$400/t NH3 by 2030, and ~$350/t NH3 by 2040. Exporting excess clean power further improves the economics. – Potential to export additional H2-related products (e.g., synfuels, HBI/steel) longer term.
• Potential economic benefits to Namibia would accrue over time and by 2040 could reach and surpass: GDP boost of $15bn- $19bn/year1 , well over 100,000 domestic jobs, $6bn-$8bn contribution to trade balance2 and national energy independence.
• Successfully capturing this opportunity will come down to execution in achieving globally competitive LCOA – Achieving lowest LCOA will come through, e.g.: attracting competitive cost of capital, coordinated procurement to negotiate early electrolyser discounts, intelligent phasing and build out of core infrastructure, integrating power exports to improve economics – Namibia should seek to establish itself as a relevant player in the 2020s to de-risk scale-up in the 2030